Dynamical Monsoon Model

The dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers (supercomputers) and extrapolating it over particular time frames.

This modern forecasting model is being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune.

The dynamical monsoon model is also called the Coupled Forecast System version 2. So far it has achieved only 60% accuracy in forecasting the monsoon.

This method is widely used in forecasting weather over a few days. But using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.

Ensemble model

Currently, IMD relies on an ensemble model for forecasting monsoon. This traditional model uses a statistical technique.

It uses an average of 6 meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure.

These meteorological values are traditionally derived from century-old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.

However, this traditional approach in has failed to predict monsoon recent decades (for instance in 2002 and 2004) leading meteorologists to call for a new, modern forecasting system.

India Meteorological Department (IMD): It is an official national weather forecaster of India. It was established in 1875. It is a division of Union Ministry of Earth Sciences.