Implications for South Asia(cont...)

The Social and Economic Impact of NCDs in the Russian Federation

The Russian Federation’s unprecedented mortality upsurge due to noncommunicable diseases (with cardiovascular disease the main cause) and injuries in the last two decades, coupled with fertility rates that are well below replacement level, has several implications beyond the

sociodemographic makeup of the country.

Shrinking population:

Since the beginning of the 1990s, the population has declined by 6 million to an estimated 143 million. Continued high mortality and declines in fertility are expected to lead to a further population decline.

Fewer workers:

Female life expectancy (72 years) is close to the level of 1955 while male life expectancy (59 years) is four years less than that year. If these trends persist, the size of the Russian labor force will continue to shrink. A healthy population aged 65–75 could represent a sizable untapped workforce. However, the high burden of ill health among surviving older Russians may limit what can be achieved.

Adverse economic effects include:

* The cost of absenteeism due to ill health.

* Adverse impact on labor supply.

* Adverse impact on labor productivity.

* Job losses due to harmful alcohol use.

* The impact of NCD on early retirement.

* Adverse impact on the family.