Rationale for Action(cont...)

NCD can hold back development and poverty reduction efforts in low-income countries. At the macroeconomic economic level, Figure 3.2 provides an illustration of diminished health from NCDs ultimately leading to lower economic growth and poverty. In South Asia, while empirical evidence is scant, projections suggest that over the next 10 years deaths from heart disease, stroke, and diabetes may lower GDP in India and Pakistan by 1 percent (WHO 2005). In Sri Lanka, where life expectancy has increased the most in the region, chronic illness is an important cause of withdrawal from the labor market (World Bank 2008a).

Figure 3.2 Illustration of the macroeconomic effects of NCDs

Source: Abegunde and Stanciole 2006.

The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report for both 2009 and 2010 (WEF 2009 and 2010) put chronic NCDs and their impact on both advanced and developing economies high on its Global Risk Matrix because of their connection to other global risks such as financial crises and underinvestment in infrastructure.

At the microeconomic level, if those affected are the main income earners or those rearing the children, NCD-related short- or long-term disability or premature death can change consumption patterns dramatically. This may result in dramatically reducing nonmedical related consumption on food and education and lead to liquidation of accumulated wealth and assets to pay for care. As noted in Chapter 1, risk behaviors such as tobacco use may also change household consumption patterns, where tobacco purchases can also displace purchases for schooling and food.